A sign welcomes visitors to California's Napa Valley, home to more than 400 wineries. The wine industry has faced drastic challenges in recent years. Photograph: Bob McClenahan/Visit Napa Valley
From layoffs to export troubles, Californias wine industry is in flux C but small producers are innovating to survive
After more than a quarter century tracking the seemingly endless growth of the wine industry, Rob McMillan was finally vindicated last year as Californias vigneron of doom.
McMillan is the author of Silicon Valley Banks annual state of the US wine industry report, and the 2025 edition was a doozy. Since 2018, the bank has warned the industry that a correction in demand would shake the wine world. That reality is now here, with 2025 revenue down, the volume of wine produced dropping and a bumpy bottom in demand forecast in 2027 and 2028.
I was very direct when the industry was going fine, but nobody ever likes it when you say things are disastrous, McMillan said. Now, everybody understands what Im talking about.
A sunsetting customer baseIn the 1990s, McMillan said, options among beer and spirits really sucked and an entire generation of baby boomers gravitated towards wine. The industry responded, particularly on the premium side of things where wines start in the $20-$40 range, and areas like Napa Valley and Sonoma county rose to the occasion.
My generation really enjoyed learning about wine, he said, noting the major addendum that many boomers lived through some particularly generous times from an economic standpoint, which helped the surge in the premium wine category. We would go and geek out about how many days of sunlight the vines would get, what the sugar was like at harvest.
Now, millions of those baby boomers, long a mainstay of the cellar door, are sunsetting each year C industry parlance for drinking their last glass.
His report paints a dire future for wineries that expect the bygone era of exponential growth to return. Instead, the document says wineries that adapt will be well placed to survive, and thrive, albeit in a more stable way.
There is a growing divide characterized by the separation between wineries that adapt and those that remain tethered to the previous era of strong growth, the report reads. 2026 will mark the point in this correction where some growers and wine companies that have struggled for the past five years will publicly capitulate and exit.
For some businesses, thats already taking place.
Gallo, the largest supplier of wine in the US and the maker of the Barefoot wines brand, said in February it would lay off 93 people , including dozens of winemakers, and close a major facility in Napas St Helena. Constellation Brands, which owns Robert Mondavi wines, also said in January it would lay off more than 200 workers at its Mission Bell winery.
A perfect stormNapa has more than 400 wineries open to the public. Many are small, family-run businesses where a changing landscape means adapt, or die. And those winemakers are awake to that fight.
Jill Matthiasson, a longtime winemaker in Napa who runs Matthiasson Wines with her husband, Steve, said the Napa region had seen a big decrease in wine consumption in the last two years.
Shifts in generational drinking habits, concerns about health and broader trends of people just drinking less have all played a role. The surgeon general said last year alcohol use was the third leading preventable cause of cancer in the US , and beverages should carry a warning label. A 2025 Gallup poll found just 54% of American adults consume alcohol. Thats the lowest figure in the pollsters 90-year history.
Its just a perfect storm that everything hit at once, Matthiason said, calling the sudden downturn shocking. A lot of people drank during Covid, they stopped to get healthier, theres been this emergence of health-oriented biohacking.
She continued: But nothing replaces wine. Wine drinking is ancient C sitting around the table, wine and food bring people together, bring community together. Nothing replaces that.
Matthiasson Wines, she said, has been forced to adapt regardless. That includes a greater focus on their core principles : organic farming, treating employees well and doing what it can to appeal to a new generation of people who are buying wine with those values in mind.
We just have to figure out a way to work through this, she said. Wines not like other products. Its very personal. People come and visit us at our winery, then you have sort of a memory of that for the rest of your life.
Matthiasson Wines, she added, is actually doing fine amid the broader downturn.
We have to work harder to sell wine than weve had to in the past, but it ebbs and flows, she said.
Small wineries adapt to the shifting tidesLaura Gabriel, the founder of Paper Planes wines and a tasting room in downtown Napa called The River Club, said she, too, had noticed a correction in the industry after being warned for years it was due to land.
Rob has been telling everyone in the industry that this cliff was coming for probably a decade, and nobody listened, she said. But here we are.
Consumers these days have far more choice in what they drink. That would be okay for the wine industry if millennials and gen Z were replacing sunsetting boomers. But while nearly a third of baby boomers said they would choose wine as their alcoholic drink of choice in data compiled by Silicon Valley Bank last year, less than a quarter of drinkers between the ages of 21 to 29 said they preferred the same thing.
More than half of younger drinkers said they would opt for spirits or premixed drinks such as hard lemonade or seltzer instead.
In an era where those who are drinking have seemingly endless choices, Gabriel said, small businesses need to reach those customers where they are.
People used to be able to discover a brand on shelf, and maybe talk to a wine steward about that product, she said. And thats just not something that happens any more.
She continued: Were finding that discovery happens through social media, it happens through online research, it happens a lot through friend recommendation. We just have to be so much more active in telling our own stories and creating experiences that people want to talk about.
Amid that shift, Gabriel added, Napa and the broader California wine industry is at an exciting inflection point.
In times of challenge, thats when innovation happens, she said. I think there are more interesting cool things to discover in wine country, in Napa, in Sonoma than ever before.
Tourism struggles, but optimism remainsLinsey Gallagher, the president and CEO of Visit Napa Valley, said there had been some shifts in visitation, particularly from international travelers who were staying C and spending C less. Canadian bans on US wines have also been hard on local businesses.
Canada is the single largest export market for California wines, Gallagher said. We would historically export a billion dollars [annually], most of that to Canada. Overnight, that distribution channel went away.
Still, she said, there are many reasons to be optimistic about Napas future. Hotel occupancy in 2025 went up almost 3% over the previous year. The average age of people visiting Napa dropped from 46 in 2018 to 40 in 2023, and the diversity of tourists increased compared with pre-pandemic levels.
And despite a slate of challenges, Gallagher said, Napa remains a truly special part of California.
I think this valley pulls together unlike any community out there, she said. We have faced our share of adversity, whether that was phylloxera and disease and pests in our vines, or the pandemic, followed by some of the worst wildfires this valley has seen. We come together incredibly well.
She added: Thats not to say I have rose-colored glasses. But its still beautiful, and the wine is world class.
Doing whatever it takes amid the doom and gloomBen Brenner, a co-owner of Benevolent Neglect wines, said many winemakers in Napa had declared doom and gloom about the industry. But to Brenner, change is nothing new in wine.
There is no this has always worked, this will always work in Napa, Brenner said. The companies that are at the top of the feeding frenzy from the last 40 years have maybe lost sight of what its supposed to be. Theres a lot of not-so-good, manipulated wines that are overpriced. I understand why people arent into that any more.
He continued: I think our industry will be absolutely fine. I think theres a lot of excellent people involved. Our peers here in Napa, were all owner-operated, were all hustlin, were doing a lot of going to where the people are right now. Were doing dinners, road shows, doing whatever it takes.
He said while reports like McMillans do show that younger drinkers were less interested in wine, just because youre 22 doesnt mean you have shitty taste always and forever.
Brenner added: A lot of millennial people are well deep in their 30s, theyre all buying a lot more wine [than they did] 10 years ago, because theyre not 25 anymore. I see young people here every day that are super excited about wine.
For McMillan, the state of the industry report is a moment to reflect and figure out what is next.
I just dont want people to make a mistake that we just gotta hold on by their fingernails, McMillan said. I dont want to see them lose everything, Id rather they see things clearly.
从裁员潮到出口困境，加利福尼亚州的葡萄酒产业正经历动荡——但小型生产商正通过创新谋求生存
在追踪葡萄酒行业看似无止境的增长超过四分之一个世纪后，罗布·麦克米伦去年终于被证明是加利福尼亚的“末日葡萄种植者”。
麦克米伦是硅谷银行《美国葡萄酒产业年度报告》的作者，2025年版报告内容令人震惊。自2018年以来，该银行一直警告行业需求调整将冲击葡萄酒界。如今这一预测已成现实：2025年行业收入下滑、葡萄酒产量下降，且预计2027至2028年需求将出现‘震荡触底’态势。
麦克米伦表示："行业景气时我说话直来直去，但没人爱听你唱衰。如今，大家都明白我当初的意思了。"
日渐萎缩的客户群麦克米兰表示，20世纪90年代时，啤酒和烈酒的选择“实在糟糕”，导致整个婴儿潮一代纷纷转向葡萄酒消费。行业迅速作出回应，尤其是在高端市场领域——葡萄酒的起步价在20至40美元区间，纳帕谷和索诺玛县等产区成功抓住了这一机遇。
他说：“我们这代人确实热衷于学习葡萄酒知识。”并补充指出，许多婴儿潮一代人经历过“从经济角度来看尤为繁荣的时期”，这助推了高端葡萄酒品类的崛起。“我们会去深入研究葡萄藤能获得多少天的日照，收获时糖分含量如何这类细节。”
如今，数以百万计的婴儿潮一代人，长期以来一直是酒窖门口的常客，每年都在“日落”——这是行业术语，意为饮尽最后一杯酒。
这份报告为那些期待指数级增长黄金时代重现的酒庄描绘了一幅严峻的未来图景。但文件同时指出，能够适应变化的酒庄将更有能力生存并蓬勃发展，尽管是以更稳定的方式。
报告指出："葡萄酒行业正出现日益明显的分化，表现为适应新形势的酒庄与固守过去高速增长模式的酒庄之间的割裂。2026年将成为行业调整的关键节点，届时部分在过去五年中举步维艰的种植商和葡萄酒企业将公开认输并退出市场。"
对一些企业而言，这种情况已然发生。
美国最大葡萄酒供应商、品牌"赤足酒"（Barefoot）的制造商嘉露（Gallo）于2月宣布，将裁减93名员工（其中包括数十名酿酒师），并关闭位于纳帕谷圣赫勒拿（St Helena）的一处主要设施。拥有罗伯特·蒙大维（Robert Mondavi）葡萄酒品牌的星座集团（Constellation Brands）也于1月表示，将裁撤其使命贝尔（Mission Bell）酒厂的200余名员工。
完美风暴纳帕谷（Napa）有400多家向公众开放的酒庄，其中许多是小型家族企业。在这个不断变化的环境中，适者生存是不变的法则。这些酿酒师们正清醒地投身于这场生存之战。
纳帕地区资深酿酒师吉尔·马蒂亚森（Jill Matthiasson）与丈夫史蒂夫（Steve）共同经营马蒂亚森酒庄（Matthiasson Wines），她表示过去两年间该地区的葡萄酒消费量大幅下降。
代际饮酒习惯的改变、对健康的担忧以及人们普遍减少饮酒的大趋势都产生了影响。美国卫生局局长去年指出，饮酒是美国第三大可预防的癌症诱因，建议酒精饮料应标注警示标签。2025年盖洛普民调显示，仅有54%的美国成年人饮酒，这是该机构90年调查历史中的最低纪录。
马蒂亚森称这次突如其来的低迷“令人震惊”，并表示：“所有事情同时发生，简直是一场完美风暴。很多人在新冠疫情期间饮酒，后来为了更健康而戒酒，随之出现了这种以健康为导向的生物黑客现象。”
她接着说道：“但没有什么能取代葡萄酒。饮酒的习俗源远流长——围坐在餐桌旁，美酒与佳肴将人们凝聚在一起，让社区紧密相连。这是无可替代的。”
她表示，马蒂亚森酒庄（Matthiasson Wines）无论如何都不得不做出调整。这包括更加注重其核心理念：有机种植、善待员工，并尽一切努力吸引新一代消费者——这些人在购买葡萄酒时正秉持着上述价值观。
“我们只需找到解决这个问题的方法，”她说道。“葡萄酒不同于其他商品。它承载着独特的情感。人们来到我们的酒庄参观，这段回忆将伴随他们一生。”
她补充道，尽管整体行业低迷，但马蒂亚森酒庄（Matthiasson Wines）实际上经营状况良好。
“与过去相比，我们现在必须更加努力才能卖出葡萄酒，但这种情况时好时坏。”她说道。
小型酒庄顺应潮流积极转型劳拉·加布里埃尔（Laura Gabriel）是Paper Planes葡萄酒品牌的创始人，并在纳帕市中心经营着一家名为The River Club的品酒室。她表示，多年来一直有人警告行业调整即将到来，如今她也注意到了这一趋势。
“罗布十年来一直在告诫业内每个人悬崖将至，却无人理会，”她说道，“但如今我们已身处其中。”
如今消费者在饮品选择上有了更多自由。如果千禧一代和Z世代能接替逐渐老去的婴儿潮一代成为葡萄酒消费主力，这对葡萄酒行业本无大碍。但根据硅谷银行去年汇编的数据显示，近三分之一的婴儿潮世代受访者表示会首选葡萄酒作为酒精饮品，而在21至29岁的饮酒者中，这一比例却不足四分之一。
超半数年轻饮酒者表示，他们会选择烈酒或预调酒（如含酒精柠檬水或苏打水）作为替代。
加布里埃尔表示，在这个饮酒者看似拥有无穷选择的时代，小型企业需要主动触达目标客户所在之处。
她表示："过去人们能在货架上发现某个品牌，或许还能向酒品专员咨询相关产品。但如今这类情景已不复存在。"
她接着说道：“我们发现，人们通过社交媒体、在线调研以及朋友推荐等途径获取信息。因此，我们必须更加积极主动地讲述自己的故事，打造值得人们口口相传的体验。”
加布里埃尔补充道，在这一转变中，纳帕谷乃至整个加利福尼亚州的葡萄酒产业正处在一个令人振奋的转折点。
"挑战来临之时，正是创新诞生之际，"她说道，"我认为在葡萄酒之乡、纳帕谷和索诺玛地区，如今有比以往任何时候都更令人兴奋的新鲜事物等待发掘。"
旅游业举步维艰，但乐观情绪犹存纳帕谷旅游局总裁兼首席执行官林赛·加拉格尔（Linsey Gallagher）表示，游客数量出现了一些变化，尤其是国际游客的停留时间和消费金额有所减少。加拿大对美国葡萄酒的禁令也对当地企业造成了沉重打击。
“加拿大是加州葡萄酒最大的单一出口市场，”加拉格尔说。“我们以往每年出口额达10亿美元，其中大部分销往加拿大。但一夜之间，这条分销渠道就消失了。”
尽管如此，她表示，仍有诸多理由对纳帕的未来持乐观态度。2025年当地酒店入住率较前一年上升近3%。到访纳帕的游客平均年龄从2018年的46岁降至2023年的40岁，且游客多样性较疫情前水平有所提升。
加拉格尔表示，尽管面临诸多挑战，纳帕仍是加利福尼亚州一个非常特别的地方。
“我认为这个山谷的凝聚力是其他任何社区都无法比拟的，”她说道。“我们共同经历了诸多困境，无论是葡萄藤上的根瘤蚜、病害和虫害，还是疫情，以及随后发生的该地区有史以来最严重的山火。但我们总能以惊人的团结共渡难关。”
她补充道：“这并不是说我戴着玫瑰色的眼镜（盲目乐观）。但这里依然很美，而且葡萄酒是世界级的。”
在阴霾与绝望中“不惜一切代价”Benevolent Neglect葡萄酒联合所有者本·布伦纳（Ben Brenner）表示，纳帕谷许多酿酒师都对行业前景持悲观态度。但在布伦纳看来，变革对葡萄酒行业而言早已司空见惯。
布伦纳表示："在纳帕谷，没有‘过去行得通，未来就一定行得通’这回事。过去40年里那些站在行业顶端的公司，或许已经忘记了葡萄酒本该有的样子。现在市场上有大量品质不佳、经过人工干预的葡萄酒被标以高价，我完全理解为什么人们不再追捧这些产品了。"
他继续说道：“我认为我们的行业绝对会好起来的。这个行业有许多优秀的人才参与其中。我们在纳帕的同业者都是自主经营，大家都在全力以赴，积极前往人群聚集的地方。我们举办晚宴、路演，竭尽所能地开展活动。”
他表示，尽管麦克米伦等人的报告确实显示年轻饮酒者对葡萄酒兴趣减弱，但"不能因为你22岁就认定你的品味永远糟糕"。
布伦纳补充道：“许多千禧一代已步入而立之年，他们现在购买的葡萄酒比十年前多得多，因为他们不再是25岁的年轻人了。我每天都能在这里看到对葡萄酒充满热情的年轻人。”
对麦克米伦而言，这份行业现状报告是一个反思并规划未来方向的契机。
麦克米兰表示："我只是不希望人们误以为我们只能勉强维持生计。我不愿看到他们失去一切，更希望他们能看清现实。"
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